Photo by Ben Margot/Associated Press
The Los Angeles Chargers finished the 2017 NFL regular-season as one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
The Chargers went 9-3 over their last 12 games, winning by an average margin of 14.6 PPG as their defense clicked and their offense led by a man I believe has the talent, readiness, confidence and potential to have an MVP season in 2018 in running back Melvin Gordon.
Melvin Gordon is a dynamic and flashy back who has the athleticism, change of pace shiftiness and agility to leave his defenders in the dust (literally). He’s become a bell cow back for the Chargers offense, and coming off his last two seasons, figures to be in the discussion as the NFL’s leading rusher by season’s end.
It’s all too triumphant a story to tell when it comes to the fourth year Charger, selected with the 15th overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the former Wisconsin Badger had a less than impressive introduction to the NFL in his rookie season.
With much hype behind the former Big 10 Conference star, Gordon failed to live up to expectations in year one as he finished the season with 184 carries for only 641 rushing yards. The worst part about his dud of a rookie campaign? He failed to score a single touchdown in 14 games played.
It was an albatross of a result for the Chargers, who have longed to find the replacement back for NFL Hall of Famer and Chargers legend LaDainian Tomlinson — who recently was inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame in 2017.
Working hard in the off-season and bulking up more, Melvin Gordon came into the 2016 running with a purpose. Gordon finished the 2017 NFL season with 997 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.
A development in Gordon’s versatility as a effective route runner also made him a valuable asset for the Chargers in short distance situations for the Californian-based team as he recorded 41 receptions for 419 receiving yards with 2 receiving touchdowns. In his rookie season he recorded 33 receptions for 192 receiving yards.
Gordon followed up a strong 2016 by setting career-highs in carries (284), rushing yards (1,105), receptions (58), receiving yards (476) and receiving touchdowns (4).
Still, something was missing from Gordon last season, and it’s been something that’s followed him for his entire NFL career to this point: Injuries.
The fourth-year back played in all 16 games for the first time in his career last season but played through pain. Gordon’s shown toughness in battling through nagging injuries lower body issues like a bone bruise in his left knee that he tore in 2015 in his rookie season and needed season-ending surgery on.
In 2016 he failed to reach 1,000 rushing yards because of a knee PCL sprain that sidelined him for the final three games.
While Melvin Gordon’s long-term durability questions might be something later on in his career to worry about for the Chargers, he is as of now a sure-thing for major offensive production.
As for winning the NFL MVP, with a continued focus on diversifying his ability as a receiver coming out of the backfield, Melvin Gordon still has a chance to put up respectable if not great numbers vs some of the NFL’s stingest defenses. It won’t be easy, however, as Gordon is set to face off vs five teams who finished in the top 10 last season rushing defense (TEN, DEN 2x, ARI, CLE, and PIT).
The silver lining though is that Gordon’s stiff competition thereafter is met with a number of welcoming matchups. Below are the run defense ranks of teams that Gordon will face in 2018.
San Francisco 49ers 22nd
Kansas City Chiefs 25th
Buffalo Bills 29th
Seattle Seahawks 19th
Los Angeles Rams 28th
Gordon will face the Chiefs run defense twice in 2018 if healthy, which means that the star runningback will have a chance to run wild on a team he totaled 170 yards from scrimmage against in a Week 15 game last season.
During the 2016 regular-season Melvin Gordon reached 100 rushing yards just twice, but when it came to yards from scrimmage he topped 100 yards or more five times (not counting his 100 yard rushing performances).
The key for Gordon in 2018 will be turning his 70% completion rate from Quarterback Phillip Rivers into 80% and to improve his 3.9 yard per carry rate to 4.3 yards per carry or more. If Gordon improves on his yards per carry by that measure, his numbers will boon from 1,105 to 1,221 rushing yards on exactly 284 carries, his 2017 total.
If Gordon improves on his completion rate from Rivers, going from 58 receptions to 67, his receiving yards will go from 476 receiving yards to 549 receiving yards on 83 targets, his 2017 total.
When adding together the numbers, Gordon eclipses 1770 yards from scrimmage, topping 2017’s career-high 1581 yards from scrimmage. With more targets and more carries, his touchdown totals figure to improve from the 12 total touchdowns he scored in 2017.
Of course beating out Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady or Russell Wilson will be tough.
What are your thoughts on the NFL MVP race in 2018?
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